Blizzard of 2003: A near miss

By Caleb Boulter

It was a storm to remember for many residents in the eastern United States. Many of these areas got plastered with as much as four feet of snow, that is, except North Conway and the northern reaches of New England. A stark contrast in snowfall totals forced the residents of North Conway to watch the storm pound our neighbors to the south with very heavy amounts of snowfall. Now in the record books, this storm became the first of the season to produce beneficial rains in the West, tornadoes in the south-central United States, and of course, the heavy snowfall in the East. Excruciating cold prevailed during much of this month and the winter season in North Conway. Many days had morning low temperatures of 20 degrees below zero while the mercury barely surpassed 5 degrees by the afternoon. The reason for this chilling flashback is because this very same air mass, which originated in Siberia, was a major culprit in the development, movement, and impact of this latest snowstorm. It is important to realize that the Blizzard of 2003 was not spectacular in its intensity. In fact, the central pressure of this system consisted of a level commonly found in weak storms. However, the real story of the event developed when the storm tapped into a great amount of tropical moisture. Once this moisture collided with the record-setting arctic air mass, a prolific snowmaker had set up. This arctic air mass that was centered in southeastern Canada had also slowed down the system, which, when combined with a high fluff factor, had produced a major winter storm. How slow was this blizzard? An average Nor'easter has a duration of 12 to 18 hours, but this event lasted upwards of 48 hours. Likewise with the latest blockbuster event, the fluff factor in winter storms is the key to how much snow a region can receive. On average in New England, 10 inches of snowfall yields to one inch of rain (10 to 1 ratio). This ratio is usually higher away from the coastline, but lower toward a marine influenced environment. During the Blizzard of 2003, temperatures were mainly into the upper 10s and lowers 20s in the Mid-Atlantic and New England states. This resulted in an average fluff factor of 15 to 1, which in turn helped produce greater amounts of snowfall than what is expected from a typical storm. The arctic air mass certainly helped a substantial area of the eastern United States have a healthy snowfall accumulation, but what about North Conway and our neighbors toward the north? I have to admit, I was going crazy knowing that areas hundreds of miles to our south were receiving up to 48 inches of snowfall. Despite only receiving 4 inches of snow from the event, we can thank the large arctic air mass to the north for blocking the system. North Conway's air was far too dry to support a great amount of precipitation. To the contrary, the southern reaches of our state recorded healthy amounts of snow. Even though North Conway missed out on the full impact of the Blizzard of 2003, evidence shows that we have plenty of potential opportunities that could provide healthy doses of new snowfall through early April. Week in review On Friday, Feb. 14, the morning low reached a temperature of minus 12 degrees in North Conway, but areas such as Whitefield and Berlin dropped down to an astonishing minus 40 degrees. Temperatures did rise into the single digits by the afternoon in North Conway, but then quickly dropped by nightfall. Clear skies reigned on Saturday as the sun's strength had little impact in warming the environment. Overcast skies plowed into the region on Sunday, Feb. 16, which was due to the Blizzard of 2003 occupying the Mid-Atlantic region. Temperatures recovered into the mid teens throughout the daytime hours, which was delightful for many after being 14 degrees below zero during the same morning. As the Blizzard of 2003 moved into southern and central New England on Monday, the morning temperatures in the region moderated to above zero for the first time in nearly one week. Light snow began shortly after midnight on Tuesday, Feb. 18, where the duration lasted through mid-afternoon. A mere 3.5 inches of snow accumulated in North Conway, but southern New Hampshire received far greater amounts of up to 25 inches. With a snow pack of 19 inches in North Conway, the temperature warmed into the upper 30s during the afternoon on Wednesday. Clear skies dominated the region on Thursday, Feb. 20, where the mercury soared up to 46 degrees. Caleb Boulter, 17, is Web master of North Conway Weather (http://www.northconwayweather.com), a Web site featuring current conditions from his weather station and sky cam. The site also highlights hours of information with over 200 photographs. Caleb Boulter currently interns at the Mount Washington Observatory and reports daily as a cooperative weather observer to media and governmental outlets. For comments and questions on this article, contact nhweatherman@adelphia.net.